This report discusses the economic forces affecting property/casualty (P/C) insurance. The report begins with an analysis of six of economic indicators that impact the P/C casualty industry and compares 2019 performance to 2020 projections. P/C premium growth usually follows nominal GDP, and in an analysis of 53 Blue Chip forecasts, there is a remarkable range. Some foresee a two-quarter recession. The report notes that the growth of exposures through 2019 will end in the 2020 recession, but the latest economic data do not show that yet. The report also discusses private sector business starts and deaths; workers compensation; healthcare; and housing and vehicle sales. The report also includes as a special topic discussion on COVID-19 and business interruption insurance, which outlines four key takeaways: global pandemic risks are uninsurable; retroactive payouts would bankrupt insurers; insurers are ready and actively paying covered claims; and that policies clearly explain “virus and bacteria exclusions.”
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